Technological Forecasting and Assessment: Science and/or Mythology?

A number of radically distinct models (inquiry systems) are described. The models derive from C. West Churchman’s recent characterization of the history of Western epistemology. It is argued that only a few of these models are appropriate for technological forecasting problems. Most technological forecasting methodologies rest on a dubious philosophical foundation. They unreflectively assume that the inquiry systems which are appropriate for “well-structured” problems are also appropriate for “ill-structured” problems. It is argued that technological forecasting is an inherently ill-structured problem and therefore requires a methodology which is uniquely suited to such problems. The Dialectical and Singerian Inquiring Systems are proposed as particularly appropriate for ill-structured problems. The white man drew a small circle in the sand and told the red man, “This is what the Indian knows,” and drawing a big circle around the small one, “This is what the white man knows.” The Indian took the stick and swept an immense ring around both circles. “This is where the white man and red man